Korea/Japan 2002
World Cup Predictions
31 May 2002
And the champions are...
Most people are thinking France and Argentina, and it really is difficult to go past those
two. Both have excellent form preceding the tournament, with France winning Euro
2000 and the 2001 Confederations Cup, whilst Argentina totally dominated their qualifying
campaign. France look even stronger since winning the Cup in their own country in
1998, with their strikers much improved. Henry and Trezeguet were immature mere
squad players then, whereas now they are amongst the best in the world and led the league
scoring in England and Italy respectively. France also have the French's league's
top scorer, the 20 year old sensation, Cisse. The core of their defence and midfield
still remains, with midfield maestro Zidane and especially midfield general Vieira even
better this time. Only query is the defence and goal-keeping: whilst dependable with
the class of Desailly and Thuram, it's older, and slower than four years ago, and has lost
Blanc; and Barthez had that horror run at the start of the season and could go AWOL again.
Another factor mentioned against the France is history and the fact that they played no tough qualifiers as defending champions. Only Italy in 1934 and 1938 has won consecutive World Cups and winning teams have nearly always come from the same continent or region. However, it would be difficult to see an Asian team win this time, so the affect of this neutral venue is unknown on the traditional European and South American powerhouses. As for the lack of hard and tough qualifying matches, France never had that last time either because they automatically qualified as hosts. They failed to even reach the 1990 and 1994 Cups, yet were able to significantly raise the bar enough to win in 1998. Sure, they won't have home-ground advantage like last time, but they have a better team to compensate.
After self-destructing against Holland in the quarter finals when at France 98 when Ortega head-butted goal-keeper van der Saar and was sent off, Argentina's squad has improved too. Veron in midfield and Crespo up front have developed to be amongst the best in the world. Lopez, Sensini and Zanetti have another four years experience under their belt. The squad runs deep, with goal machine Batistuta not even first choice striker now. Other than that typical South American volatility, there seems no weakness in the team.
In predicting any tournament winner, the draw must be looked at. It was the most significant part of Croatia's and Sweden's third placings in France 98 and USA 94 respectively. Unfortunately for the two big favourites, France and Argentina are in the same half (bottom), and will meet in the semi-finals if things go to plan. If one finishes second in their respective group, they will meet in the eighth final. That's a cruel ending, especially for the fans. Argentina are in that group of death with England, Nigeria and Sweden, so France are guaranteed to play one of those teams in the next round. Brazil have an easy group, and on seeding, would be France's following gig. While Brazil had a shocking qualifying campaign in losing 6 games, they are still Brazil and very much capable. To beat England, Brazil then Argentina to make the final, France will have to beat three big footballing names. Compare that to four years ago when they defeated Paraguay, Italy and Croatia en route to the final, and France's task sounds much tougher. Time will tell on that. But a finals appearance will be well earned regardless.
The standout in the top half of the draw is Italy. On recent form, they should have a clean run to the finals. The Cup final could be a repeat of the Euro 2000 final of France versus Italy. Spain is the only team with form that stands in their way. But the two won't meet until the semi finals at least. However, Spain still has to get over their shocking World Cup record and beat Portugal in the quarters to get that far. Italy would play a team from Group D in the first knockout game, which would come from USA, Korea or Poland. Portugal are also in that group, but obviously favoured to top the group, which Italy would then face in the semis. Before that, there's the only other big name in that half of the draw: Germany. Their form has been mixed, but with an easy group should make the next phase to play Group B runner-up, either Paraguay, South Africa or Slovenia, and should make the quarters.
Outsider?
I can't see any team from Group's A, C, F, or H challenging the loaded bottom
half of the draw that contains France and Argentina. So you look to the other groups
and the standout is African and Olympic champion, Cameroon. In fact, Cameroon have
won the past two African Championships and conceded no goals in the most recent
tournament. They are in the group with Germany, and would not surprise in winning
that group. If so, they face the German path as described above and should make the
quarters. From there, they'd have to beat Italy then either Spain (whom they beat in
the Olympics) or Portugal. A Cameroon versus France or Argentina final would be
interesting. If they finish second in the group, the path becomes the tough: Spain,
Portugal, then Italy.
Turkey is my rank outsider to make the quarters. They are in the tough bottom half of the draw, but in a weak group of Brazil, China and Costa Rica. What helps is that that group faces Group H opponents in the next round, which is either Japan, Russia, Belgium or Tunisia. Turkish football has developed in leaps and bounds since making Euro 1996. They requalified in 2000 and made the quarters, and their leading club, Galatasary, who provide almost half the Turkish squad, won the UEFA Cup against Arsenal just over a year ago. Turkey are certainly capable of making the top two in their group and defeating a Group H opponent in the next round. From there, if both France and Argentina top their respective groups, Turkey would meet one of them. But if either finishes second, one would be knocked out in the eighth final and Turkey could bypass the other until the semis. Instead, they would play one of the other "group of death" teams, but if they are lucky with the panning out of the draw, could play a slightly easier Group A team of either Denmark, Senegal or Uruguay in the quarters, and would be a definite semi-final proposition.
The Hosts
Traditionally, the hosts do well, but equally as traditional, the Asians do
terribly. North Korea shocked Italy and made the second phase in 1966. The
Saudis also went that far in 1994. But other than that, there's been little else to
excite. Korea (South) has had five World Cup appearances, yet has still to win a
game. Japan made their first appearance four years ago, and lost all games. Of
the two hosts, Japan has the easier group draw (H: Russia, Belgium and Tunisia) and is
capable of getting through. They should definitely get a win on the board, as
Tunisia's recent form has been abominable. While Japan are also in that tough bottom
half, they are on the Group C crossover in the next round and could very well meet Turkey.
Brazil, China and Costa Rica are the other teams in that group. From there,
they could get lucky and follow the Turkish route as described above, all the way to the
semis.
As for Korea, they have Poland, the USA and Portugal. Conceivably they could lose all games, but also, could finally get a their first win ever at a World Cup and even get through. However, they are on the crossover with Italy's group in the next round and by finishing second in their group, and with Italy winning their's, would face Italy in the eighth final. The other potential eighth finalist from that group also looks tough for Korea: Croatia, Mexico and Ecuador. After that, they'd most likely meet Spain in the quarters with Germany or Portugal in the semis. Korea are certainly a better team than Japan and ordinarily would be favoured to go further, but they simply have one hell of an almost surmountable.
Tournament Wishes
Despite Australia missing out again and my favourite neutral team in Holland missing also,
there's been a distinct lack of personal excitement and interest to this World Cup.
However, it does promise to be an excellent event World Cup and on this day of the first
match, some feeling has finally kicked in. While there's no one there for me to
really cheer, I'd like to see our foes Uruguay do well, just as I did with Iran four years
ago. There's no reason to hate them - it's not their fault that we had to play, and
lose to them. That Iran/USA match four years ago was the most intense match I've
ever seen, with Iran's performance alleviating some of the pain from the previous
November. It's strange to say this, but they did us proud. Hopefully Uruguay
will play equally as well, instead of relying on their traditional cynical and dirty
tactics. France's brilliance I admire, and I love watching them play, so will
cheering quietly for them too. However, ultimately, it would also be really nice to
see a new team win the Cup, just like four years ago.
My final wish is for the tournament to be controversy-free, with Fifa not going overboard on their "simulation" crackdown. Their crackdown on the tackle from behind rule last time nearly ruined the tournament. In fact, I don't why they bring in such rules just before a major tournament. Other than that, lets hope the football is flowing, the players don't dive, the refereeing is competent and we finally have that cracking final we've been longing for since 1986.
Final Predictions
Winner: France
Second: Cameroon
Third: Argentina
Fourth: Italy
Longshots: Turkey, Japan.
After the first phase
15 June 2002
France, Argentina and Cameroon - what happened?
In the most the dramatic tournament ever, two big favourites are gone, along with
a few minor favourites. Even Italy had to rely on an upset win by Ecuador over
Croatia to get through. It really is amazing how much luck is required to progress through
such a tournament. And luck was the primary element that was against France and
Argentina. Both teams suffered from bad offside calls, hitting the post, great
saves, so much so, that it seemed they were destined to fail. France had more
chances than Senegal did, but fluffed them. Against Uruguay, there were two bad
offside calls and after Henry was red-carded early in the match, two red cards should also
have been awarded to Uruguay for even worst tackles. As for Denmark, France hit the
post twice that game, but really, they seemed resigned to their ultimate fate, especially
when Denmark managed to grab the first goal after some loose French marking. Then
there was also Zidane's injury, which meant the team was unsettled. Many cite
France's over-confidence as part of their downfall, and the fact that they thought
Djorkaeff could emulate Zidane's role in their usual formation certainly reeked of it.
Also, their defence, known to be slow and potentially a weak link, was caught out
for pace often. Remaining stubborn to incumbent players and not introducing any new
talent reeked of over confidence. France have many exciting young players in the
French league, and only sought to blood one: the excellent striker, Cisse.
Argentina's faults were similar, especially with leaving Saviola at home and taking the geriatric Scottish based Caniggia instead. While they created many chances, and should have scored at least twice before Sweden scored, not partnering Crespo with Batistuta for any of the games was very surprising. Whenever Crespo came on, Batistuta went off. They played one striker with two wide, though forwardly placed, midfielders. Trouble was that Ortega seemed uncomfortable as he always sought to cut inside. In the end, they could only muster one goal for the tournament (the goal against Sweden should have been disallowed for severe encroachment - surprised media has yet to pick that up). In saying all that, Argentina played reasonably well throughout, created many chances, and with a bit of luck, would have went through.
Check this Soccernet feature for more on why Italy and Argentina failed: http://worldcup.espnsoccernet.com/story?id=216185&lang=en
The biggest disappointment for me was Cameroon. They were too tentative and a shadow of the team that many had predicted them to be. They had a soft group, and even when Germany were down to 10 men early in that match, Cameroon had no idea how to capitalise. Instead, they ended up losing it. In fact, without Africa's supposed weakest team - Senegal - making the next phase, that continent's form has been disappointing.
Revised Predictions
Australia's Confederation Cup whipping boys, Mexico, has been the real surprise
so far. They dismantled Croatia comfortably, then turned around a one goal deficit
against an Ecuador team in defensive mode. Against Italy, they were even more
impressive, and were unlucky not to win. While the quality of their players is of
usual Mexican standard, they just seem to have a great harmony and cohesion going, which
will take them far. I predict them to make the semi finals, where potentially they'd
meet Italy again. But before that, they have to get past the USA in the next round
and Germany in the quarter finals.
As with the initial predictions, the draw must be looked at. And good news is, that with France and Argentina gone, the right side has opened right up. The lower section will see an outsider reach a semi-final: Sweden, Senegal, Japan or Turkey. Japan and Turkey, my outside tips, are scheduled to meet next round meaning one will make the quarter finals. However, given their home form, I feel Japan will be the team to get through that quarter final and would also have more chance of getting past either Sweden or Senegal to reach the semi final. Senegal has been very impressive so far and should they get past Sweden, will make Japan's assignment much tougher in the quarters compared to the mid-level European opposition that they've been able to handle so far. The top half of that side is dominated by Brazil and England, whom are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals. I don't think Brazil have been tested properly yet, and are conceding too many goals, so favour England to going through.
On the right side of the draw, the pedigree seems to suggest a Germany vs Italy or Spain semi final. In the lower section, Spain have Ireland next, whom you'd think they'd get past, whilst Korea plays Italy. As much as I'd like to see Korea do well, I think Italy will finally bring them back to earth. But Italy will meet their demise against Spain in the quarters. In the upper section, I've already declared Mexico making the semi-finals. On pedigree, the final will be England or Brazil versus Germany, Italy or Spain. But I'm going for the new boy in that group to go all the way.
Final Predictions
Winner: Spain
Second: England
Third: Mexico
Fourth: Japan.
The big "What If".
Interesting to read Frank Farina's comments, albeit made in jest, that Australia
would have topped the group if they'd qualified instead of Uruguay. Senegal would
have been Australia's main problem, as Australia often come unstuck against African teams.
But given the tight nature of the group, and the form of the teams in the group,
Australia would have had every chance to qualify. Historically, they've had a good
record over Scandinavian teams in major tournaments, and has a win and a draw against
France in the past year. That was also a France in much better form than this current
one. Lets also remember that the series against Uruguay was actually very close,
regardless of what the score-line suggests, and that Uruguay would have went through in
second spot if Morales did not somehow miss that point-blank header in injury time against
Senegal.
I suppose the bigger picture not realised fully is that if Australia had qualified from the group, potentially they would have faced England. That definitately would have happened if they had won the group as they'd have replaced Denmark as England's opponent in the eighth-final. But the more tantalising prospect would have been if they finished second in the group. It would have seen them in the weakest quarter of the draw where they would have played Sweden, and then either Japan or Turkey to make the semi-finals - certainly within them. England, provided they got past Brazil or Belgium in the quarters, would then await them in the semi final. Either way, that sort of match-up would really have stopped the nation, and just imagine the fallout on both sides of the ledger if we'd have beaten them!