In a newspaper article remembering the anniversary of that loss to Iran, written by Mike Cockerill and appearing in The Age and Sydney Morning Herald, both he, and Aurelio Vidmar, highlighted the crucial errors, in hindsight, that seemingly caused Australia's failure. But most importantly, something that could have been avoided.
The 2002 World Cup draw has just been announced, and quite simply, it is a shocker for Oceania.
Definitive Answer
In the previous two parts of the "What went Wrong" series, I highlighted things like wasted chances, poor refereeing, the sudden death nature of the playoff, and the choice to play away first. Playing at home first or last, it is still hypothetical whether Australia would have performed any better. As it turned out, they did play well enough to win, but the the errors reported by Cockerill actually made this option superfluous as it turned out. The same can be said about the playoff situation. Ideally a league situation is much preferred, but in the end, the team played well enough to qualify via the playoff. Some players, like Arnold, hinted at the lack of a decent preparation, but again, this made no difference in the end.
As for wasted shots and refereeing, they are the uncontrollables in football. Referees missing offsides and being too lenient, is something Australia cannot control. Likewise, the finishing. Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't. And to be fair, Aurelio did play well that night in scoring one, and setting up the other. It was the defence that failed. And herein lies the blame as proportioned by the newspaper article.
Team selection and substitutions was the area where Australia, and more importantly, Venables stuffed up. Even I raised this issue in part 1. The selection of Horvat over Ivanovic directly resulted in the Teheran goal, and in the second Melbourne goal being conceded. Aurelio even agreed saying that even amongst the players in the dressing room before the games, the gut feeling was that Ivanovic should have played. Ivanovic had been marshalling the defence through all the other qualifiers and lead up games, and later in the Confederation Cup, he did it again - superbly too. He was instrumental in keeping Brazil scoreless in that first game with superb reading of play, timely tackles, and correctly pushing up. Australia was never caught out.
Aurelio is convinced that with Ivanovic marshalling the last line, Australia would never have conceded those two goals, and I agree with him. In Teheran, Horvat pushed up by himself giving Madahvikia the space to get the cross in. And we all saw the debacle that lead to the second Iran goal in Melbourne. I mean, the call was late, and by Tobin too, leaving Horvat - the last line - indivdually pushing up, fatally. Why? The defence was at sixes and sevens and the tendency to play offside at the wrong times, simply cost Australia the tie.
Timing of the substitutions was way off too. Even I, at the game, sensed Australia was not going to score any more and it was time then to close shop. Sure, no one could envisage Iran scoring a goal at the time, but then Venables was the insurance. He was suppose to see things others could not. Once the lead had evaporated, the decision to substitute Aurelio for his brother was even more crazy. Aurelio stated he was amazed at being taken off when Australia had to score. The next day, all the local coaches quizzed were equally stunned that substitutions were not made earlier.
There you have it. The only real thing that Australia had direct control over - team selection and substitutions - they failed. I know it is all in hindsight, but even before the game, the non-selection of Ivanovic was the source of much discussion everywhere. Especially in the light that Horvat, himself, was actually recovering from injury along with a few other players. And during the game, the huge amount payed to Venables that was suppose to insure against such factors that local coaches could not see, failed to pay-out when disaster was about to hit. I hate to say it, but what Australia needed this time was some of Eddie Thompson's maligned defensive steel at a fraction of the price of Venables charismatic, flamboyant, but most importantly fatally flawed approach.
2002 World Cup Draw - It is Crap
The bad news is Australia again is forced into the Russian Roulette scenario of a playoff for its first, and only chance of qualifying. This time, however, it is against the 5th best South American team. You would thing Brazil and Argentina would got through in the top four, and hopefully Chile and Colombia too. Then there is Uruguay. That would leave a team like Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia or Ecuador as most likely opponents. Other than Brazil and Argentina, Australia would have a at least a 50/50 chance of beating any of the South American teams, but that is not the point. Again Australia is being denied a fair qualification process. If Oceania is to go though that region the winner and/or runner up must be placed into their league or pool processes and have the benefit of several home and away clashes for direct qualification that every other region in the world has. It sucks.
The Breakdown is this:
Europe - 15 spots (includes France as Champions)
Africa - 5 spots
South America - 4 spots
Asia - 4 spots (though 2 spots will be taken by the two hosts)
Concacaf - 3 spots
Oceania/5th South American team - 1 spot
* these are just allocations - the individual confederations determine the qualifying
process for their eventual World Cup qualifiers.
Again, this contravenes Fifa's very own constitution which states that each full Confederation must be represented at its major tournaments. If they can't be placed into a league situation, Oceania must get one direct spot with the third Concacaf team playing the 5th South American team for the last spot. Judging from the poor performances of the Concacaf region in recent World Cups (USA and Jamaica were out-classed, and Mexico just made the second round), this seems the logical and fair thing to do. But then, what about Africa? Five spots? Come on. None of the African teams made the second round, and only really Cameroon has done anything of note, ever. Fifa's infatuation with African football saying it is a developing area that needs fostering is baloney. What about Oceania? They granted Oceania full Confederation status in 1996, yet have done nothing for the region whatsoever. No wonder Hill wanted to join Asia - Oceania is too small and lacks any serious continental championship. How can the lesser nations like NZ or Fiji have any hope of qualification. They have to win Oceania (nearly impossible) and then playoff against another relatively super team.
The leading team in Oceania is easily on par with most African and Concacaf nations. Australia whipped Tunisia 3-0 prior to the World Cup and defeated Mexico in the Confederation Cup several months later. And these are supposedly the better, if not best, teams of their regions. Oceania deserves a direct spot.
That won't happen and I think the best scenario is for the 10 South American teams to be split into two groups with the two Oceania pool winners joining them - one in each group. That would mean 5 home and away games with the top 2 teams going through from each group. The 2 third placed teams would then play-off for the 5th spot. This is the only way to go if Oceania is to procede through South America. The other advantage of this is that the smaller Oceania nations at least have something to aim for - placing in the top two would gain them much exposure and experience against teams they would neer dream of playing. We all saw how happy NZ were when they qualified for the Confederation Cup. Imagine if a nation like Fiji could make the South American pools and play Brazil! They would get their arses whipped but at least there would be a secondary goal to aim at. At the moment, it is a waste of time for any of them to try qualifying.
I will complain to Fifa and forward my suggestion and I urge all other Australian Football fans who want their team to have a fair run at a World Cup to do so also.
It really is a disgrace. Will they ever learn?
* As a footnote, Johnny Warren, interviewed on SBS, proportions some of the blame to Australia for failing to beat the 4th best Asian team. Well excuse me, this time Warren is way off. Australia proved that they were far better than the best (as it turned out) Asian team. They lost because of a refereeing decision, the nature of the playoff, and the vagaries of the game. Warren seems to think we have to earn brownie points to gain a favourable draw and going through South America is a form of relegation, or punishment. If that is true, what about Africa, Asia and Concacaf whom all performed miserably in France. Especially the Africans who have not been punished despite no team making the second phase. I can't believe Fifa would even think like this - surely the interests of the game all over the world are at heart?
Also, it is not about Australia, it is about Oceania. Oceania have been treated poorly for ages and, really, all that Fifa has done is continued the trend in spite of the last Confederation Cup where Oceania effectively proved they were the second strongest confederation out there. Sorry, I doubt very much that Fifa has any such reward/punishment criteria in determining their World Cup allocations.
At least Warren agreed on one thought that Oceania are forced into a playoff and will effectively have no build up, whereas the South American opposition would have enjoyed up to 18 tough qualification games. This is the real issue. Maybe Oceania does not deserve a spot, but at least they deserve a fair chance at qualifying.