If you thought Fifa's rankings were already wacky enough, then the seedings for the World Cup draw will send you over the edge. Somehow, despite being ranked 2 and 3 in the world, the Czech Republic and Holland have not been seeded, while Argentina only scraped in eighth ranked on points, just one point in front of the USA. That's right, the USA. The other seeded teams are Germany, Brazil, Italy, France Mexico and Spain.
Despite newspaper reports stating pots would be decided on seedings, Fifa stuck to geographical regions for the remaining countries as similiarly used in the 2002 World Cup. Australia sees itself in pot 4 with the 5 African qualifiers as well as the two remaining South American teams.
Pot 2 contains the remaining European teams, whilst pot 3 is Asia and the remaining three CONCACAF teams. There's a special pot with just Serbia & Montengro, who, as lowest ranked European team, will be placed in a group with either Brazil, Argentina or Mexico so as to avoid a group having 3 European teams.
No group will contain more than two teams from Europe, nor more than one team from any of the other regions.
Considering the trouble Australia often has with African teams, the pot allocation is a perfect scenario. Also handy that they escape Paraguay and Ecuador - two teams that could be very tricky. Then with Mexico as a seed, Australia has beaten them both times they met recently - at the Confederations Cup in 1997 and 2001, with the scores of 3-1 and 2-0 respectively.
Best of all, not only does it mean Australia will have a match against a team from either of the two weakest confederations, it provides a chance for my personal dream match-up of that against Iran. It would be the perfect revenge for the 1997 heartbreak in those World Cup qualifers.
The draw takes place on Saturday morning at 6.15am AEST.
Pot 1: Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain, Argentina, Brazil
Pot 2: Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Tunisia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Australia
Pot 3: Croatia, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Iran, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, USA
Special Pot: Serbia & Montenegro (will be placed in a group with only one other European team)
Mexico, Australia, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia
Brazil, Australia, Holland, Serbia & Montenegro
England, Australia, Holland, Iran
Wry smiles struck this morning at the World Cup draw held in Germany when Australia was pulled out of the pot to face Brazil at next year's World Cup. There seemed even slight cackles from the audience as the irony in contrast between the two nations was immediately realised. Following that came Croatia and then Japan, whom Australia will play first. While the draw might have felt like a dagger to some, it's a really nice, balanced draw. When you consider that potentially Australia could have drawn Holland or the Czech Republic instead of Croatia and drawn Serbia & Montenegro instead of Japan, it materialised quite well.
Brazil is the clear standout, but each of the other teams will fancy themselves against the other. Australia was always going to play a top team, so making it the best possible is the perfect match-up. Australia versus Brazil at the World Cup does not get any bigger. Probably only England would top it in interest and rivalry, but certainly not in terms of prestige.
As for the other two teams, there's a shared connection between Australia and Croatia with many Australians of Croatian descent in the national team, not to mention Croatia having several Australian born players choosing to play for their parents' homeland team, the most notable of which is Josip Simunic. For Australia, Mark Viduka is the most famous - especially after being courted by former president Frano Tudjman to play for Croatia - while there's also Josip Skoko, Zeljko Kalac, Tony Popovic & Jason Culina, just to name a few. Croatia would have been my next favoured team to play out of pot 3.
Having Japan is a perfect synergy and almost like a local derby, and could be the start of an even greater rivalry considering Australia will be moving to the Asian confederation as of next year. While I'd have preferred Iran over any team to play, taking on Asia's powerhouse is the perfect way to start the tournament. Both teams will be placing a huge emphasis to win this game, and it should prove a mouth-watering contest.
Brazil would expect to win all three games to lock up top spot, and probably will. Australia did beat Brazil at the Confederations Cup in 2001 in the third-place playoff, but this Brazillian team is a far more different - and difficult - proposition to that one, which was largely experimental. Since then they've finished top of the South American qualifiers and then steamrolled Argentina in the 2005 Confederations Cup, 4-1, after a slow stat with a draw to Japan and a lost to Mexico in the group stage.
Against Croatia, it is more encouraging. Australia does have a good record against such middle-European teams, and while Croatia did go through their qualifying unbeaten in winning 7 of their 10 games, it was a relatively week group with Sweden being the seeded team and Bulgaria an ailing shadow of their former selves. Both Sweden and Croatia bulldozed through the group with Sweden accumulating enough points to qualify as a best placed runner-up. In terms of personnel, they compare favourably to Australia. In terms of the head-to-head record, it's 2 wins to Australia, 1 loss and 1 draw. But little can be read into those games with three of them played on a tour to Australia in Croatia's early days as a country when they were not that strong, while the other, a 7-0 debacle in Zagreb in 1998, saw Croatia in deep preparation for the World Cup while Australia's players were recalled from holidays. Their famous World Cup run of that year even loses some of its gloss when you consider they had about the cosiest draw and softest run ever. Since then, they were eliminated in the first round with losses to Mexico and Ecuador in the 2002 World Cup and failed to get out of the group stage for Euro 2004 as well.
Japan will be more interesting. Some people will see Australia expecting to win, even though the head-to-head record is even at 5-5-4, which includes the last three meetings as wins for Japan, even if the last two were in Japan and under difficult conditions or against a weakened Australian side, with the other against a weak home based team in the wet in Adelaide. There was also a 4-1 drubbing against yet another modest home-based team in Wollongong some years before that. Their World Cup performance in 1998 was poor with three losses, including one to Jamaica. In 2002 they fared much better when reaching the knockout stage, but went no further and that was home soil. Their recent form since then has been ok by qualifying first from their group. The are the Asian champions and drew with Brazil and beat Greece in the most recent Confederations Cup. They're fast, skilled and play as a unit, and have a prominent coach in the Brazillian, Zico. It's just one of those games that could see anything happen.
The order of teams for the matches does not really matter. Much like the situation whether you play home first or last in playoffs, there's an argument for each. By playing the weaker sides first, on one hand you ease yourself into the tournament and gain a win, but on the other hand hitting the strong sides first up is the time that you're mostly likely to surprise them. Playing them last could see them complacent having most probably already qualified for the knockout stage, or they could be out for the kill after maybe dropping points.
The weak-strong-weak scenario that Australia has is somewhere in the middle, and perfect for keeping Australian minds concentrating. Especially with the slightly-stronger Croatia as last, there'll be no thought of waiting for the last game, as could be the case if it were Japan.
It's quite similar to the home and away playoff scenario in that sense, except on this occasion Australia is at "home" first and knows they need to get the score on the board. But if they don't, at least they have a second chance in the "away leg".
History shows Australia performing well against top teams at each stage of a group through various tournaments, which includes a 0-0 against Brazil in the 1997 Confederations Cup as the second match, and wins against Brazil and Argentina at various youth tournaments and at various stages. Coach Guus Hiddink, just like he did when asked about playing home-last against Uruguay, dismissed any merits in such an order for the group phase.
Australia's most likely problem to encounter will be failing in the immediate next match should they perform well against a team like Brazil. It happens oh so often - at all levels - that they excel out of their skins against a top team, only to lose the following match to a lesser team that they should be beating.
Regardless of perceived advantages, playing Japan first is really the perfect scenario in terms of interest and pathway through the tournament. It's certainly possible for Australia to beat them and Croatia, which would definately see Australia qualify for the second phase provided Brazil wins at least two matches and draws the other. Australia gaining a win and a draw would probably be enough to progress. Or even just one win, depending on other results. It truly is a fascinating group.
If Australia can qualify for the knockout stage, they meet either Italy, Ghana, USA or Czech Republic first up.
June 13, Kaiserslautern, vs Japan (11pm AET)
June 18, Munich, vs Brazil (11pm AET)
June 22, Stuttgart, vs Croatia (5am, the 23rd, AET)
A: Germany, Costa Rica, Poland, Ecuador
B: England, Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago, Sweden
C: Argentina, Cote d'Ivoire, Serbia and Montenegro, Netherlands
D: Mexico, Iran, Angola, Portugal
E: Italy, Ghana, USA, Czech Republic
F: Brazil, Croatia, Australia, Japan
G: France, Switzerland, Korea Republic, Togo
H: Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia