Australian Vaccine Rollout Projections
Based on a simulation model using vaccination data by age group.

The simulation model Vaxroll allows analysis of the day-by-day rollout of Australia's vaccine programme. It can project the current rollout based on the latest data, and can also simulate the rollout from the beginning, under different assumptions. It ultilises data from the Australian Department of Health COVID-19 vaccination Doses by age and sex as well as Our World in Data.

A key assumption used in the model is that vaccination rates attenuate when reaching a certain saturation level of the eligible population age group (16+). This level is currently set at 95%. A vaccination rate of 95% of the eligible 16+ population represents 77% of the total population including children. This vaccination level is likely to be an upper limit, until children are vaccinated. Few countries have achieved population vaccination rates above 70%, as can be observed from international data. The 95% upper limit assumption for the eligible population can be varied for age groups and regions as more evidence becomes available.

Another aspect of the modelling is an assumption about how quickly targets will be reached. This depends very much on local factors including vaccine hesitancy. Possible trajectories can be considered on comparison with other countries' trajectories. The model uses a formula whereby the daily number of new vaccinations decreases as the vaccinated age group approaches the assumed limit. Alternative projections can be made. More information on the model can be found here.
Last available data: 13 Sep 2021     Last updated: 17 Sep 2021

Australia - Rollout Projections  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - 16+ population  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
Standard assumption
18 Sep
26 Oct
07 Oct
19 Nov
05 Nov
28 Dec
Days to go
2
40
21
64
50
103
Reduced hesitancy
18 Sep
26 Oct
05 Oct
15 Nov
27 Oct
22 Dec

The table shows the countdown to the milestones under the standard assumuption. The rollout slows down after 70% is reached. An alternative assumption can be made about the future speed of the rollout, to account for lower hesitancy. This is produced by a variation in the forecast formula. Optimistically we can expect the trajectory to follow that of Canada.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 30.0%   D2:  8.4%
01 Aug - D1: 41.0%   D2: 19.2%
01 Sep - D1: 60.4%   D2: 36.4%
13 Sep - D1: 69.2%   D2: 46.6%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 77.5%   D2: 58.3%
01 Nov - D1: 89.2%   D2: 72.9%
01 Dec - D1: 92.9%   D2: 83.7%
01 Jan - D1: 93.9%   D2: 90.5%


Currently Australia is in the peak stage of the daily rollout. The daily rate can be expected to slow down in the next month as most of the population is vaccinated. In September, the 70% Dose 1 target will be reached nationally and in most states and territories. The 80% Dose 1 target will be reached in October. Exactly when will depend on accessibility and hesitancy factors. The Dose 2 targets will be reached about six weeks after the Dose 1 targets.

Detailed usage data by vaccine type is not available but the vaccination policy regarding AstraZeneca and Pfizer can be used to generate estimates of vaccinations by age group and vaccine type. Alternative scenarios can thus be projected of vaccine use. The model uses interpolations of current and previously published data. It is assumed that the rollout is limited by the availability of the Pfizer vaccine.

What follows are the model outputs projected forward from the current data.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

At the beginning of the rollout, AstraZeneca was used mainly to vaccinate the 60+ population. Following medical advice, the rollout in Australia has been delayed until more stocks of Pfizer have become available for younger people. This has set back the rollout by about two months. See the Alternative Scenario details below.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 1 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
Initially, priority is given to older age groups. Subsequently, vaccines are made available to all 16+ age groups.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 2 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
Second doses are assumed to follow first doses after three weeks for Pfizer and 12 weeks for AstraZeneca. This 12-week period for AstraZeneca was reduced in August.  

 

Vaccines Administered per Day  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The daily rollout is limited by vaccine availability, vaccination capacity and vaccine hesitancy. A capacity limit of 350,000 per day has been assumed. The stocks of vaccine available are determined by the balance of incoming supply and current usage. First doses are not administered unless the prospective supply of a second dose is available.  

 

Vaccine Stocks Available, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The rollout is limited by the supplies of Pfizer which are insufficient to meet demand until September. Meanwhile of the 50 million doses of AstraZeneca ordered, about 35 million are not used in Australia.  

States and Territories  

Vaccine Rollout milestones  
 
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
AUS
18 Sep
26 Oct
07 Oct
19 Nov
05 Nov
28 Dec
ACT
06 Sep
09 Oct
23 Sep
29 Oct
24 Oct
03 Dec
NSW
01 Sep
07 Oct
15 Sep
28 Oct
16 Oct
04 Dec
NT
28 Sep
01 Nov
15 Oct
23 Nov
15 Nov
23 Dec
QLD
02 Oct
10 Nov
18 Oct
03 Dec
17 Nov
16 Jan
SA
29 Sep
06 Nov
16 Oct
30 Nov
15 Nov
10 Jan
TAS
18 Sep
20 Oct
06 Oct
10 Nov
06 Nov
10 Dec
VIC
18 Sep
29 Oct
06 Oct
22 Nov
06 Nov
11 Jan
WA
02 Oct
10 Nov
18 Oct
03 Dec
17 Nov
14 Jan

Vaccine rollouts in States and Territories are based on the national rollout and state data and trends. A straight line extrapolation of current trends may underestimate the time needed to reach targets because daily rates will slow down as higher population proportions are reached. Projections show doses for the 50+ and 70+ populations as a proportion of the total population.

 

Australian Capital Territory  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - ACT  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
06 Sep
09 Oct
23 Sep
29 Oct
24 Oct
03 Dec
-10 days
23 days
7 days
43 days
38 days
78 days

Vaccines Administered, Australian Capital Territory - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 40.1%   D2: 13.0%
01 Aug - D1: 54.2%   D2: 25.3%
01 Sep - D1: 66.5%   D2: 43.3%
13 Sep - D1: 77.2%   D2: 55.0%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 83.6%   D2: 66.4%
01 Nov - D1: 91.5%   D2: 81.4%
01 Dec - D1: 93.8%   D2: 89.7%
01 Jan - D1: 94.4%   D2: 94.1%

 

New South Wales  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - NSW  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
01 Sep
07 Oct
15 Sep
28 Oct
16 Oct
04 Dec
-15 days
21 days
-1 days
42 days
30 days
79 days

 

Vaccines Administered, New South Wales - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 27.7%   D2:  7.8%
01 Aug - D1: 41.6%   D2: 19.3%
01 Sep - D1: 70.4%   D2: 38.7%
13 Sep - D1: 80.6%   D2: 51.9%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 86.2%   D2: 66.8%
01 Nov - D1: 92.6%   D2: 81.7%
01 Dec - D1: 94.3%   D2: 89.1%
01 Jan - D1: 94.7%   D2: 93.0%

 

Northen Territory  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - NT  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
28 Sep
01 Nov
15 Oct
23 Nov
15 Nov
23 Dec
12 days
46 days
29 days
68 days
60 days
98 days

 

Vaccines Administered, Northern Territory - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 36.7%   D2: 14.9%
01 Aug - D1: 46.6%   D2: 26.6%
01 Sep - D1: 56.0%   D2: 38.9%
13 Sep - D1: 62.1%   D2: 47.8%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 72.1%   D2: 57.8%
01 Nov - D1: 87.0%   D2: 70.1%
01 Dec - D1: 92.0%   D2: 82.9%
01 Jan - D1: 93.4%   D2: 91.2%

 

Queensland  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - QLD  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
02 Oct
10 Nov
18 Oct
03 Dec
17 Nov
16 Jan
16 days
55 days
32 days
78 days
62 days
122 days

 

Vaccines Administered, Queensland - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 28.7%   D2:  8.4%
01 Aug - D1: 37.0%   D2: 18.5%
01 Sep - D1: 51.6%   D2: 32.9%
13 Sep - D1: 58.6%   D2: 42.2%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 69.4%   D2: 52.1%
01 Nov - D1: 86.2%   D2: 65.3%
01 Dec - D1: 91.8%   D2: 79.2%
01 Jan - D1: 93.4%   D2: 88.6%

 

South Australia  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - SA  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
29 Sep
06 Nov
16 Oct
30 Nov
15 Nov
10 Jan
13 days
51 days
30 days
75 days
60 days
116 days

Vaccines Administered, South Australia - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 31.1%   D2:  8.4%
01 Aug - D1: 41.2%   D2: 19.3%
01 Sep - D1: 53.8%   D2: 35.5%
13 Sep - D1: 61.5%   D2: 44.5%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 71.7%   D2: 53.9%
01 Nov - D1: 86.9%   D2: 67.4%
01 Dec - D1: 92.0%   D2: 80.5%
01 Jan - D1: 93.5%   D2: 89.2%

 

Tasmania  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - TAS  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
18 Sep
20 Oct
06 Oct
10 Nov
06 Nov
10 Dec
2 days
34 days
20 days
55 days
51 days
85 days

Vaccines Administered, Tasmania - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 36.7%   D2: 11.8%
01 Aug - D1: 48.5%   D2: 24.7%
01 Sep - D1: 60.9%   D2: 43.5%
13 Sep - D1: 69.2%   D2: 52.8%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 77.6%   D2: 62.6%
01 Nov - D1: 89.1%   D2: 76.2%
01 Dec - D1: 92.8%   D2: 86.9%
01 Jan - D1: 93.8%   D2: 93.3%

 

Victoria  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - VIC  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
18 Sep
29 Oct
06 Oct
22 Nov
06 Nov
11 Jan
2 days
43 days
20 days
67 days
51 days
117 days

 :

Vaccines Administered, Victoria - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 32.7%   D2:  8.7%
01 Aug - D1: 42.2%   D2: 19.4%
01 Sep - D1: 57.9%   D2: 35.9%
13 Sep - D1: 69.2%   D2: 44.8%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 77.6%   D2: 55.5%
01 Nov - D1: 89.1%   D2: 71.6%
01 Dec - D1: 92.8%   D2: 82.5%
01 Jan - D1: 93.9%   D2: 89.3%

 

Western Australia  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - WA  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
02 Oct
10 Nov
18 Oct
03 Dec
17 Nov
14 Jan
16 days
55 days
32 days
78 days
62 days
120 days

Vaccines Administered, Western Australia - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021


01 Jul - D1: 28.0%   D2:  6.8%
01 Aug - D1: 37.4%   D2: 16.3%
01 Sep - D1: 51.7%   D2: 32.7%
13 Sep - D1: 59.1%   D2: 42.0%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 69.8%   D2: 52.2%
01 Nov - D1: 86.3%   D2: 65.7%
01 Dec - D1: 91.9%   D2: 79.5%
01 Jan - D1: 93.4%   D2: 88.8%

 

Australia - Alternative Scenario - Using AstraZeneca  

Australia's vaccine rollout has been characterised by the restricted use of available domestically produced AstraZeneca vaccine. While this has saved a small number of lives, it has delayed the rollout by about two months. It remains to be seen how many lives will be lost due to spread of the virus in the unvaccinated population during this period. We may also count the cost of extended lockdowns and border closures due to the months-long delay in reaching vaccination targets.

Vaccine Rollout milestones - Alternative AZ scenarios  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
Restricted AZ (historical)
13 Sep
13 Oct
17 Oct
14 Nov
Using AZ for 50+
22 Aug
27 Sep
21 Sep
26 Oct
Using AZ for 40+
19 Jul
19 Sep
20 Aug
21 Oct

This table compares three model simulations, each starting at the start of the modelling period on March 1 2021. The first assumes that AstraZeneca is given only to the 60+ population. The rest wait until Pfizer becomes available. The results of this track quite well the rollout that has actually occurred.

Until June 17, AztraZenica was available to people of age 50+. Then it was restricted to those of age 60+. The second row of the table indicates the rollout that would have occurred if people of age 50+ had continued to have been able to receive AstraZeneca. The 70% and 80% Dose 1 targets are reached about one month earlier.

The third row of the table indicates what the rollout situation would have been if the AstraZeneca vaccine had been more fully utilised. In this simulation, the 40+ population is able to receive AstraZeneca if no Pfizer is available. The 70% and 80% Dose 1 targets are reached about two months earlier. The 80% dose targets are reached about a month earlier.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

This simulation shows the rollout achieving full capacity in July instead of Sepetmber.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario, the AstraZeneca is the primary vaccine used in Australia. A total of about 28 million doses of AstraZeneca are used and about 10 million of Pfizer.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 1 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The 70+ age group is vaccinated first and the other groups follow soon after.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 2 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The younger 16-29 and 30-39 age groups, receiving Pfizer, get their second dose before the others, who receive AstraZeneca.  

 

Vaccines Administered per Day  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario the daily rollout is dominated by the first and second doses of AstraZeneca.  

 

Vaccine Stocks Available, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario, the limited supplies of Pfizer, used only for the younger population, are still apparent.  

Alternative Scenario - Vaccinating Children  

The objective of having 80% of total population being fully vaccinated is proposed by the Grattan Institute.

Vaccination of children will be necessary to achieve total population vaccination targets. It is assuimed in this scenario that vaccination of children 12-16 commences on November 1. After the 80% eligible (16+) population target is reached, it takes about a further two months to reach the 80% of total population target.

Vaccine Rollout milestones - Vaccinating children  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
80% Population  
Standard assumption
21 Sep
30 Oct
22 Oct
28 Nov
08 Feb
Reduced hesitancy
17 Sep
24 Oct
06 Oct
14 Nov
05 Jan

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

Rollout trajectory comparisons  

In many countries' vaccination rates have slowed down markedly after most of the population has been vaccinated.

Proportion of Total Population, Dose 1, Selected Countries  
Doses administered
Current  
02 Jan 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
In Australia, the spread of the delta variant can be expected to speed up vaccinations, and a trajectory like that of Canada can be expected.  

 

Proportion of Eligible Population, Dose 1, States and Territories  
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   13 Sep 2021
As targets are achieved, daily vaccination rates will slow down.  

 

Rollout Projection Formula  

The formula used to caclulate the Dose 1 projections for each time period and vacccine type is:

Di,j   =   C Aj Pi,j(L - Vi) e

where:

Di   is the daily doses administered for age group i, vaccine type j

C   is the rollout capacity at the current time

Aj   is the avalabiltity factor for vaccine type j

Pi,j   is the policy factor for age group i, vaccine type j

L   is the vaccination percentage limit, set to 90%

Vi   is the percentage of the population vaccinated for age group i

e   is an exponent to represent hestiancy (e=1.0 standard, historical; e=0.5 reduced, projected)


The exponent e in this formula controls how fast the curve bends toward the limit. Over the historical period, a value of 1.0 works well, replicating the actual rollout. In the projections a value of 0.5 seems to work better, until the percent vaccinated reaches 80%.

 

For COVID-19 active cases by country see Revised Worldometer Data
Last updated: 17 Sep 2021
By John Perkins     Contact