Australian Vaccine Rollout Projections
Based on a simulation model using vaccination data by age group.

The simulation model Vaxroll allows analysis of the day-by-day rollout of Australia's vaccine programme. It can project the current rollout based on the latest data, and can also simulate the rollout from the beginning, under different assumptions. It ultilises data from the Australian Department of Health COVID-19 vaccination Doses by age and sex as well as Our World in Data.

A key assumption used in the model is that vaccination rates attenuate when reaching a certain saturation level of the eligible population age group (16+). This level is currently set at 95%. A vaccination rate of 95% of the eligible 16+ population represents 77% of the total population including children. This vaccination level is likely to be an upper limit, until children are vaccinated. Few countries have achieved population vaccination rates above 70%, as can be observed from international data. The 95% upper limit assumption for the eligible population can be varied for age groups and regions as more evidence becomes available.

Another aspect of the modelling is an assumption about how quickly targets will be reached. This depends very much on local factors including vaccine hesitancy. Possible trajectories can be considered on comparison with other countries' trajectories. The model uses a formula whereby the daily number of new vaccinations decreases as the vaccinated age group approaches the assumed limit. Alternative projections can be made. More information on the model can be found here.
Last available data: 22 Nov 2021     Last updated: 24 Nov 2021

Australia - Rollout Projections  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - 16+ population  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
Standard assumption
17 Sep
20 Oct
05 Oct
06 Nov
11 Nov
11 Dec
Days to go
-68
-35
-50
-18
-13
17
Reduced hesitancy
17 Sep
23 Oct
05 Oct
09 Nov
25 Oct
09 Dec

The table shows the countdown to the milestones under the standard assumuption. The rollout slows down after 70% is reached. An alternative assumption can be made about the future speed of the rollout, to account for lower hesitancy. This is produced by a variation in the forecast formula. Optimistically we can expect the trajectory to follow that of Canada.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 29.9%   D2:  8.3%
01 Aug - D1: 41.0%   D2: 19.2%
01 Sep - D1: 60.4%   D2: 36.4%
22 Nov - D1: 91.3%   D2: 86.3%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 78.4%   D2: 55.0%
01 Nov - D1: 88.6%   D2: 78.2%
01 Dec - D1: 93.1%   D2: 88.0%
01 Jan - D1: 96.9%   D2: 94.7%


Currently Australia is in the peak stage of the daily rollout. The daily rate can be expected to slow down in the next month as most of the population is vaccinated. In September, the 70% Dose 1 target will be reached nationally and in most states and territories. The 80% Dose 1 target will be reached in October. Exactly when will depend on accessibility and hesitancy factors. The Dose 2 targets will be reached about six weeks after the Dose 1 targets.

Detailed usage data by vaccine type is not available but the vaccination policy regarding AstraZeneca and Pfizer can be used to generate estimates of vaccinations by age group and vaccine type. Alternative scenarios can thus be projected of vaccine use. The model uses interpolations of current and previously published data. It is assumed that the rollout is limited by the availability of the Pfizer vaccine.

What follows are the model outputs projected forward from the current data.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

At the beginning of the rollout, AstraZeneca was used mainly to vaccinate the 60+ population. Following medical advice, the rollout in Australia has been delayed until more stocks of Pfizer have become available for younger people. This has set back the rollout by about two months. See the Alternative Scenario details below.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 1 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
Initially, priority is given to older age groups. Subsequently, vaccines are made available to all 16+ age groups.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 2 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
Second doses are assumed to follow first doses after three weeks for Pfizer and 12 weeks for AstraZeneca. This 12-week period for AstraZeneca was reduced in August.  

 

Vaccines Administered per Day  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The daily rollout is limited by vaccine availability, vaccination capacity and vaccine hesitancy. A capacity limit of 350,000 per day has been assumed. The stocks of vaccine available are determined by the balance of incoming supply and current usage. First doses are not administered unless the prospective supply of a second dose is available.  

 

Vaccine Stocks Available, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The rollout is limited by the supplies of Pfizer which are insufficient to meet demand until September. Meanwhile of the 50 million doses of AstraZeneca ordered, about 35 million are not used in Australia.  

States and Territories  

Vaccine Rollout milestones  
 
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
AUS
17 Sep
20 Oct
05 Oct
06 Nov
11 Nov
11 Dec
ACT
06 Sep
07 Oct
19 Sep
17 Oct
30 Sep
27 Oct
NSW
01 Sep
07 Oct
15 Sep
17 Oct
09 Oct
08 Nov
NT
15 Oct
13 Nov
07 Nov
03 Dec
02 Dec
23 Dec
QLD
10 Oct
13 Nov
09 Nov
05 Dec
04 Dec
25 Dec
SA
05 Oct
06 Nov
26 Oct
24 Nov
29 Nov
19 Dec
TAS
18 Sep
20 Oct
10 Oct
10 Nov
04 Nov
02 Dec
VIC
17 Sep
20 Oct
30 Sep
30 Oct
23 Oct
23 Nov
WA
10 Oct
14 Nov
05 Nov
02 Dec
05 Dec
27 Dec

Vaccine rollouts in States and Territories are based on the national rollout and state data and trends. A straight line extrapolation of current trends may underestimate the time needed to reach targets because daily rates will slow down as higher population proportions are reached. Projections show doses for the 50+ and 70+ populations as a proportion of the total population.

 

Australian Capital Territory  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - ACT  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
06 Sep
07 Oct
19 Sep
17 Oct
30 Sep
27 Oct
-79 days
-48 days
-66 days
-38 days
-55 days
-28 days

Vaccines Administered, Australian Capital Territory - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 40.1%   D2: 12.9%
01 Aug - D1: 54.2%   D2: 25.3%
01 Sep - D1: 66.5%   D2: 43.3%
22 Nov - D1: 99.0%   D2: 98.7%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 91.0%   D2: 64.7%
01 Nov - D1: 99.5%   D2: 93.2%
01 Dec - D1: 99.0%   D2: 99.3%
01 Jan - D1: 99.0%   D2: 98.4%

 

New South Wales  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - NSW  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
01 Sep
07 Oct
15 Sep
17 Oct
09 Oct
08 Nov
-84 days
-48 days
-70 days
-38 days
-46 days
-16 days

 

Vaccines Administered, New South Wales - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 27.7%   D2:  7.8%
01 Aug - D1: 41.6%   D2: 19.3%
01 Sep - D1: 70.4%   D2: 38.7%
22 Nov - D1: 94.8%   D2: 93.3%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 87.6%   D2: 65.1%
01 Nov - D1: 93.7%   D2: 88.4%
01 Dec - D1: 95.8%   D2: 94.1%
01 Jan - D1: 97.9%   D2: 97.6%

 

Northen Territory  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - NT  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
15 Oct
13 Nov
07 Nov
03 Dec
02 Dec
23 Dec
-40 days
-11 days
-17 days
9 days
8 days
29 days

 

Vaccines Administered, Northern Territory - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 36.7%   D2: 14.8%
01 Aug - D1: 46.6%   D2: 26.6%
01 Sep - D1: 56.0%   D2: 38.9%
22 Nov - D1: 87.3%   D2: 76.1%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 66.3%   D2: 52.9%
01 Nov - D1: 77.1%   D2: 64.1%
01 Dec - D1: 90.0%   D2: 79.2%
01 Jan - D1: 95.6%   D2: 92.6%

 

Queensland  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - QLD  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
10 Oct
13 Nov
09 Nov
05 Dec
04 Dec
25 Dec
-45 days
-11 days
-15 days
11 days
10 days
31 days

 

Vaccines Administered, Queensland - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 28.7%   D2:  8.3%
01 Aug - D1: 37.0%   D2: 18.5%
01 Sep - D1: 51.6%   D2: 32.9%
22 Nov - D1: 86.1%   D2: 76.2%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 66.3%   D2: 47.3%
01 Nov - D1: 78.2%   D2: 64.9%
01 Dec - D1: 89.2%   D2: 78.9%
01 Jan - D1: 95.4%   D2: 92.1%

 

South Australia  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - SA  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
05 Oct
06 Nov
26 Oct
24 Nov
29 Nov
19 Dec
-50 days
-18 days
-29 days
0 days
5 days
25 days

Vaccines Administered, South Australia - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 31.1%   D2:  8.3%
01 Aug - D1: 41.2%   D2: 19.3%
01 Sep - D1: 53.8%   D2: 35.5%
22 Nov - D1: 88.5%   D2: 80.1%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 68.3%   D2: 50.1%
01 Nov - D1: 82.2%   D2: 67.5%
01 Dec - D1: 90.9%   D2: 82.9%
01 Jan - D1: 95.9%   D2: 93.5%

 

Tasmania  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - TAS  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
18 Sep
20 Oct
10 Oct
10 Nov
04 Nov
02 Dec
-67 days
-35 days
-45 days
-14 days
-20 days
8 days

Vaccines Administered, Tasmania - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 36.7%   D2: 11.7%
01 Aug - D1: 48.5%   D2: 24.7%
01 Sep - D1: 60.9%   D2: 43.5%
22 Nov - D1: 93.4%   D2: 87.5%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 76.6%   D2: 58.9%
01 Nov - D1: 89.5%   D2: 75.8%
01 Dec - D1: 94.7%   D2: 89.9%
01 Jan - D1: 97.4%   D2: 96.5%

 

Victoria  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - VIC  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
17 Sep
20 Oct
30 Sep
30 Oct
23 Oct
23 Nov
-68 days
-35 days
-55 days
-25 days
-32 days
-1 days

 :

Vaccines Administered, Victoria - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 32.7%   D2:  8.6%
01 Aug - D1: 42.2%   D2: 19.4%
01 Sep - D1: 57.9%   D2: 35.9%
22 Nov - D1: 93.5%   D2: 91.1%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 80.7%   D2: 50.6%
01 Nov - D1: 91.9%   D2: 81.5%
01 Dec - D1: 94.8%   D2: 92.4%
01 Jan - D1: 97.4%   D2: 96.7%

 

Western Australia  

Vaccine Rollout milestones - WA  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
10 Oct
14 Nov
05 Nov
02 Dec
05 Dec
27 Dec
-45 days
-10 days
-19 days
8 days
11 days
33 days

Vaccines Administered, Western Australia - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021


01 Jul - D1: 28.0%   D2:  6.8%
01 Aug - D1: 37.4%   D2: 16.3%
01 Sep - D1: 51.7%   D2: 32.7%
22 Nov - D1: 85.7%   D2: 76.7%
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     - 28 Feb 2022


01 Oct - D1: 65.3%   D2: 47.0%
01 Nov - D1: 79.1%   D2: 64.0%
01 Dec - D1: 88.8%   D2: 79.7%
01 Jan - D1: 95.3%   D2: 91.4%

 

Australia - Alternative Scenario - Using AstraZeneca  

Australia's vaccine rollout has been characterised by the restricted use of available domestically produced AstraZeneca vaccine. While this has saved a small number of lives, it has delayed the rollout by about two months. It remains to be seen how many lives will be lost due to spread of the virus in the unvaccinated population during this period. We may also count the cost of extended lockdowns and border closures due to the months-long delay in reaching vaccination targets.

Currently (as of 22 Nov.), if we had used more of the AstraZeneca made in Melbourne, 91.9 % of Australians over 15 would have had one dose, and 87.7 % would have had two doses. This is assuming AstraZenica been made available to the age 40+ population when Pfizer was unavailable, rather than restricting it to the 60+ population. (Australia is now at 91.3% dose 1 and 86.3% dose 2.)

Vaccine Rollout milestones - Alternative AZ scenarios  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
90% Dose 1  
90% Dose 2  
Restricted AZ (historical)
24 Sep
20 Oct
30 Oct
23 Nov
01 Jan
24 Jan
Using AZ for 50+
19 Aug
20 Sep
21 Sep
22 Oct
17 Nov
22 Dec
Using AZ for 40+
26 Jul
09 Sep
27 Aug
11 Oct
27 Oct
14 Dec

This table compares three model simulations, each starting at the start of the modelling period on March 1 2021. The first assumes that AstraZeneca is given only to the 60+ population. The rest wait until Pfizer becomes available. The results of this track quite well the rollout that has actually occurred.

Until June 17, AstraZeneca was available to people of age 50+. Then it was restricted to those of age 60+. The second row of the table indicates the rollout that would have occurred if people of age 50+ had continued to have been able to receive AstraZeneca. The 70% and 80% Dose 1 targets are reached about one month earlier.

The third row of the table indicates what the rollout situation would have been if the AstraZeneca vaccine had been more fully utilised. In this simulation, the 40+ population is able to receive AstraZeneca if no Pfizer is available. The 70% and 80% Dose 1 targets are reached about two months earlier. The 80% dose targets are reached about a month earlier.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

This simulation shows the rollout achieving full capacity in July instead of Sepetmber.

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario, the AstraZeneca is the primary vaccine used in Australia. A total of about 28 million doses of AstraZeneca are used and about 10 million of Pfizer.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 1 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The 70+ age group is vaccinated first and the other groups follow soon after.  

 

Vaccines Administered by Age Group, Dose 2 - percent of 16+ population  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
The younger 16-29 and 30-39 age groups, receiving Pfizer, get their second dose before the others, who receive AstraZeneca.  

 

Vaccines Administered per Day  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario the daily rollout is dominated by the first and second doses of AstraZeneca.  

 

Vaccine Stocks Available, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022
In this scenario, the limited supplies of Pfizer, used only for the younger population, are still apparent.  

Alternative Scenario - Vaccinating Children  

The objective of having 80% of total population being fully vaccinated is proposed by the Grattan Institute.

Vaccination of children will be necessary to achieve total population vaccination targets. It is assuimed in this scenario that vaccination of children 12-16 commences on November 1. After the 80% eligible (16+) population target is reached, it takes about a further two months to reach the 80% of total population target.

Vaccine Rollout milestones - Vaccinating children  
Policy  
70% Dose 1  
70% Dose 2  
80% Dose 1  
80% Dose 2  
80% Population  
Standard assumption
21 Sep
30 Oct
22 Oct
28 Nov
08 Feb
Reduced hesitancy
17 Sep
24 Oct
06 Oct
14 Nov
05 Jan

Vaccines Administered, Doses One and Two, AstraZeneca and Pfizer  
Doses administered
Projected  
01 Mar 2021     -     28 Feb 2022

Rollout trajectory comparisons  

In many countries' vaccination rates have slowed down markedly after most of the population has been vaccinated.

Proportion of Total Population, Dose 1, Selected Countries  
Doses administered
Current  
02 Jan 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
In Australia, the spread of the delta variant can be expected to speed up vaccinations, and a trajectory like that of Canada can be expected.  

 

Proportion of Eligible Population, Dose 1, States and Territories  
Doses administered
Current  
01 Mar 2021   -   22 Nov 2021
As targets are achieved, daily vaccination rates will slow down.  

 

Rollout Projection Formula  

The formula used to caclulate the Dose 1 projections for each time period and vacccine type is:

Di,j   =   C Aj Pi,j(L - Vi) e

where:

Di   is the daily doses administered for age group i, vaccine type j

C   is the rollout capacity at the current time

Aj   is the avalabiltity factor for vaccine type j

Pi,j   is the policy factor for age group i, vaccine type j

L   is the vaccination percentage limit, set to 90%

Vi   is the percentage of the population vaccinated for age group i

e   is an exponent to represent hestiancy (e=1.0 standard, historical; e=0.5 reduced, projected)


The exponent e in this formula controls how fast the curve bends toward the limit. Over the historical period, a value of 1.0 works well, replicating the actual rollout. In the projections a value of 0.5 seems to work better, until the percent vaccinated reaches 80%.

 

For COVID-19 active cases by country see Revised Worldometer Data
Last updated: 24 Nov 2021
By John Perkins     Contact